A new “new normal” has arrived as clients adjust to global economic change – How should firms respond?

In our quarterly client survey, we track how clients’ confidence to invest has been hit by the current macroeconomic situation and geopolitical tensions. This year, since the inauguration of President Trump and the pronounced shifts in US trade policy, we’ve seen a decline in global sentiment from clients about their confidence to invest, which reached a nadir in Q3. However, things have turned around, and the data suggests clients’ views are back where they started at the beginning of the year, with a roughly equal split of frightened and determined clients. 

This is important for consulting firms, because as we explained in a previous blog, frightened clients are more likely to significantly increase their use of consultants in order to take urgent action to turn things around. This remains true in our most recent data in Q4, with 58% of frightened clients saying their use of consulting and professional services will significantly increase in the next two years, compared to 40% of determined clients, and just 23% of undecided clients.

Clients are more optimistic about globalisation 

It’s not just confidence to invest that has strengthened, but also views on the upward trajectory of globalisation. In part, that’s linked to confidence too—businesses that are more confident about the current macroeconomic and geopolitical situation are also more bullish on globalisation—but even taking that into account, people think the world is getting more globalised despite the protectionism of the US. 

But why is this shift occurring while tariff battles are still raging and conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East is continuing? In part, it may be because there has been some genuinely good news: there’s ongoing growth in AI investment, Gaza has perhaps turned a corner as a ceasefire agreement has been reached, various bilateral trade deals have been agreed with the US, and the overall level of tariffs is lower than feared earlier in the year, with some evidence that actual tariffs paid are some way below the statutory rate. Indeed, clients have told us in our recent Emerging Trends research that they’ve become less worried over time about the changes in tariffs by the Trump administration.

However, we suspect another key factor is that clients’ expectations about the default state of the world have changed. Just as we talked about a new normal emerging when it comes to expectations of hybrid working following COVID, businesses now have a new baseline expectation for macroeconomic disruption and uncertainty, a new “new normal.” Trade wars and tariffs coming and going are no longer an exception; they’re the expectation. Similarly, over time, people are becoming used to there being an active war in Europe and conflict in the Middle East. In that context, when we ask whether clients’ confidence to invest is reduced, they’re less likely to say confidence has fallen relative to their new expected benchmark for macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical volatility. An executive transported to the present day from 2019 may well be shocked by how the world has changed, but someone who has worked through 2025 will have recalibrated their view of what normal looks like for the global economy and accordingly may have taken the decision to refocus on investment and international expansion. 

What does this mean for firms?  

As we discussed in our previous blog, there are still frightened clients out there who need external support to meet their challenges. But there are also increasing opportunities for firms that can help clients take advantage of a renewed focus on globalisation. As we discuss at length in our recent Emerging Trends report, almost all clients think further investment in international markets is important. And although the nature of the support they need will vary, two thirds of clients expect that adapting to the new rules of international engagement will drive an increase in their use of consulting support of more than 10% in the next three years.  

Providing that support will need firms that can implement strategies that mix the local with the global—deploying expert boots on the ground but also being able to operate across borders when required. Firms that are able to evolve their delivery model and structure accordingly will be best placed to meet the needs of clients as they recognise the new normal and look again at global growth. 

What can firms do next? 

If you want to learn more about how client organisations are adapting to shifts in globalisation, and what this means for their behaviours and needs from consulting firms, then download our recent Emerging Trends report, The new consulting frontier: Adapting to global economic change, or contact us. You can also access a selection of key metrics we capture on a quarterly basis in our new Quarterly Client Sentiment dataset.