What new opportunities will a—possibly fragile—recovery bring for firms?

In Q4 2025 there has been shift in client confidence. Throughout the year, the proportion of clients that we deem ‘frightened’ (those that say the macroeconomic environment is significantly reducing their confidence to invest in their business) has been steadily growing, until it reached a peak of 55% of respondents in Q3. However, this quarter there was a marked reversal: The proportion of frightened clients fell to its lowest level this year, at 26% of the total, and the number of confident clients hit a high, at 29%.

We should be cautious not to extrapolate these results too far, as there is a very real chance that this change could be temporary—with confidence rising slightly as business leaders respond to nuggets of optimistic news about the potential for peace deals in the Middle East or the easing of tariffs between the US and China, before potentially ebbing away in the New Year if those hopes prove premature. It’s also worth flagging that this shift in sentiment varies across regions, with those in the US seeing the smallest rise in confidence, and with frightened clients there still outnumbering determined ones. Plus, in EMEA, confidence levels are being held up by resilience within the GCC (if you are interested in seeing breakdowns of this data across Europe or other regions then do get in touch). Nevertheless, there is a real possibility that this could be a turning point, albeit likely a fragile and uneven one.

What does rising confidence mean for who is likely to buy more work?

If we segment potential buyers of consulting by their level of confidence to invest in their business, then the largest proportion (45%) is made up of those that say their confidence is somewhat reduced. We deem these clients ‘undecided’, as while they do intend to increase their use of external support over the next two years, they are less bullish about how much they will spend than their frightened and determined peers.

Frightened clients now comprise 26% of the global total (down from 55% in Q3). They say their confidence has been significantly reduced and so they will be investing heavily in external expertise in order to survive. These clients remain the biggest potential spenders on external support, as they seek to navigate increasing competition and changing customer behaviour. Fifty-eight percent of these clients expect to spend significantly more on external support over the next two years.

However, a really interesting shift this quarter is among those clients that we deem ‘determined’. This contingent say their confidence is not being impacted at all, and they comprise 29% of the global market (up massively from just 4% last quarter). These business leaders are enthusiastic about the opportunities they see to pull ahead of their competitors in today’s disrupted landscape. These ambitious clients plan to draw on their own skills and capabilities more than their frightened peers, but they are still likely to offer lucrative opportunities to firms, with 40% of them planning to increase their use of consultants significantly. With this in mind, it is with frightened and determined clients that firms are likely to find the best opportunities as we head into 2026.

What will clients be buying and why?

Technology services have been in demand from all clients of all levels of confidence for the whole of 2025. This looks set to continue, with AI solutions, tech strategy, and tech implementation work topping the list of clients’ consulting needs this quarter. However, if firms are able to determine the confidence level of individual clients, then they can better understand what those businesses need.

Determined clients, growing in number this quarter, will be seeking to work with experts that can offer cutting edge solutions to bolster their current operating models or reimagine new ones. Think models that leverage the potential of AI and other advanced technologies, for instance. Undecided clients that choose to invest will also be looking to tech solutions, prioritising investment in tech strategy and implementation, while also strengthening their cyber defences in order to operate safely in a market that they still perceive as high risk.

What about those eager-to-spend, frightened clients? They don’t want to be left behind when it comes to advanced technology either, but they’ll want proven use cases and evidence about a strong return on investment. A more immediate priority for them is getting a solid business strategy in place—they don’t know exactly where they are heading, and they want a firm that can give them confidence and a clear roadmap before they invest too heavily. Finally, after a year of restructuring, cost control, and tech disruption, frightened clients feel they need to invest in their people and skills and in change management solutions to make their investment stick.

There are indications that confidence may be rising in the market, and whether this proves to be a sustained recovery or falls away rapidly in 2026, firms should take the time to understand the sentiment of each individual client and adapt the solutions they offer them accordingly.

Questions for firms to ask:

1. Where are my key clients on the frightened to determined continuum?
2. What tech solutions will my frightened and more ambitious clients want, and how will these differ?
3. What people & skills and change management solutions will frightened clients buy, and will these be standalone services or part of wider projects?
4. How ambitious will determined clients be when it comes to rethinking their operating models?

What can firms do next?

Introducing the Quarterly Client Sentiment dataset

If you would like more insight on client confidence levels and what services these businesses are likely to invest in over the next 12 months, then do get in touch to speak to one of our experts.

You can also get instant and direct access to a selection of key metrics, with the launch of Source’s Quarterly Client Sentiment dataset. Head here to explore client priorities, confidence levels, and investment plans with complimentary access to our regularly updated dashboard.